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| A Welsh flag before a Six Nations match at the Principality Stadium, Cardiff |
A new poll by YouGov for Cardiff University and ITV Wales shows that 25% would vote Yes (+4 since the last poll in January) and 54% No (-2). The rest said they didn’t know or would not vote.
Plaid Cymru leader Adam Price and the non-aligned pro-independence group Yes Cymru were both excited by the poll result.
However exactly the same proportion of voters who back independence would opt to abolish the Senedd, with 48% (+1%) against.
Given a range of options in a different question, no devolved government in Wales was supported by 22% (+5); the Senedd with fewer powers 5% (-3); leave things as they are now 24% (no change); Senedd with more powers: 20% (+2); an independent Wales 16% (+2).
On the straightforward question of how they would in a Welsh independence referendum, Plaid Cymru supporters are unsurprisingly most in favour of Welsh independence, with 73% saying they would vote Yes in a referendum on the issue and 17% saying they would vote No.
Labour supporters break against independence by 49% to 29% and Liberal Democrats by 63% to 29%. Conservative voters were against independence by 84% to 10%.
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| Adam Price leader of Plaid Cyrmu |
So far as regional voting intentions in an independence referendum were concerned in Mid and West Wales 35% would vote Yes and 52% No. In North Wales 20% would vote Yes and 56% No while in Cardiff and South Central Wales 27% would vote Yes and 52% No. In South East Wales the breakdown was 23% Yes and 59% No and in South West Wales 21% Yes and 52% No.
In terms of social grade 24% of the more prosperous ABC1 classes would vote Yes and 63% No while the less prosperous C2DE classes would vote 26% Yes and 49% No.
With age the greatest support for independence came from those between 18 and 24, with 34% saying they would vote Yes and 48% No.
Meanwhile 25 to 49-year-olds would vote 27% Yes and 46% No while 50 to 64-year-olds would vote 28% Yes and 54% No.
Independence was less popular with the over-65s, with 16% saying they would vote Yes and 70% No.
Men would vote 26% Yes and 56% No while women would split 24% Yes and 53% No.
Remain voters in the 2016 referendum on EU membership would vote 31% Yes and 52% No while Leave voters would split 20% Yes and 68% No. In all cases the remainder said they didn’t know or would not vote.
Sion Jobbins, who chairs the cross-party pro-independence group Yes Cymru, said: “It’s fantastic news and confirms the trend in other polls – it’s not a one-off.
“We’re also pleased that it’s not just Plaid Cymru voters who are backing independence – there’s been an increase across the board from those who support all parties and none.
“People are seeing the mad and bad policies from Westminster on Covid for what they are. They can see that a Welsh Government can do things differently and better.”
When it was put to him that support for independence remained a long way from being in the majority, Mr Jobbins said: “We’ve always said we had a mountain to climb but we’ve come a long way in three or four years and this is not a flash in the pan.
“There are going to be some very significant developments in the next few years including the implications of whatever kind of Brexit we end up with and the possibility of Scottish independence and a united Ireland. We need to think seriously about the future of Wales.”
Plaid Cymru leader Mr Price said: “The cause of Welsh independence is now truly in the mainstream.
“With the coronavirus crisis making clear the chaos and the inequality that lies at the heart of the Westminster establishment it is no wonder that we have witnessed such a surge in support for a new and independent Wales – a nation proudly standing on its own two feet and in control of its own future.”
The poll had a sample of 1,021 adults and was carried out online by YouGov from May 29 to June 1.
